Ryan and Debi Cragun’s Blog

A family member recently sent me an email encouraging me to try a new fuel additive that claims to boost fuel economy. Because I care about this relative and care about the truth, I spent a few minutes checking out the claims of this company to see if it is really worth my time. Here’s what I wrote back:

I took your claims seriously and did a little sleuthing to see what I could find out about this fuel additive - Ultimate ME2. Here’s what I found:

1. Ultimate ME2 is registered as a fuel additive with the EPA (see this website). However, all that means is that burning Ultimate ME2 does not release anything toxic in the air (at least, nothing more toxic than the gasoline it is replacing). That does not mean that the fuel additive actually improves fuel economy. (See here for the registration guidelines)
2. As is typical with our government, they don’t test every new product that comes to market to ensure that what it claims is true. They do test these additives to make sure they aren’t polluting the environment but the EPA does not actually test them to see if they improve fuel economy. That isn’t really the EPA’s job. They do test fuel efficiency in cars, but not fuel efficiency of additives (see this website).
3. The EPA says you have to rely on the independent testing a company does to verify their claims. Okay, I don’t think that is a very good approach given the propensity of companies to lie, but let’s check it out. I went to the website you mentioned to look into the claims of Ultimate ME2.
4. The website itself reeks of a multi-level marketing scam. The biography of the company founder reads like a rags-to-riches dime store novella, not to mention he has so many initials behind his name that I’m led to believe they really do stand for B*llShit (or BS). The claims they make about their additive are highly suspicious.
5. Add to that the fact that if a company really discovered a way to make fuel burn more efficiently every oil company in the world would be after their product (either to corner the market on it or to squelch it so they can keep up their profits). Given the amount of money, research, and time the big players invest in this area, do you really think a small organization like EYIwould have a leg up on the big guys? I doubt it.
6. Finally, if their product is so amazing, why sell it using a multi-level marketing scheme (MLM)? Why not turn to retail or wholesale distribution?
7. All of these things made me question the claims of the company. So I examined their “independent” testing data myself. I’m guessing they just made up the numbers to make this seem convincing, though I don’t know that for sure. Even if they did, they don’t know anything about statistics as the numbers don’t support their argument. Here’s the link to their “independent” test results. And here’s a link to the company they claim performed their tests (this is a really pathetic website - I wonder if they put it up themselves).
8. If you look at the bottom of the .pdf file they actually have a table showing the results of their three tests. I took those results and threw them into my statistical analysis software. You see, they seem to indicate an improvement in fuel economy between the two cars, with the one using Ultimate ME2 having better fuel economy than the one that didn’t. The problem is, these results could be due to random chance fluctuations in driving conditions, that particular batch of gasoline, how the driver maneuvered the car, etc. So, I ran a simple t-test on the results and, not surprisingly, the difference between the control and experimental cars is not significantly different (mean difference=1.168, p< .586). There is a difference, yes, but three cases are not sufficient to claim what they are claiming. They would need to repeat this test with these same results probably 50 to 100 more times to convince me that the fuel additive actually works (I don’t have the time to actually do the power calculations).
9. Additionally, I’m always a little skeptical about these claims because it doesn’t seem to me like they actually include the cost of the additive along with the extra amount of the additive in the fuel economy calculations. Let me explain. If you buy 10 gallons of gas at $2.85 and you get 35 miles/gallon (this is what my car gets), you are paying roughly $0.08 per mile.
10. Now, add 1 pint of fuel additive. Let’s say it costs $3.50. To accurately calculate the new cost per mile you need to add the $3.50 to the $28.50 to get your new cost: $32.00. You also need to add the 1 pint of additive to the gallons of gas you purchased: 10.25 gallons. Now do the math. Buying and adding the fuel additive translates into $0.09 per mile. You’re paying a penny more per mile, which adds up on a long trip (1000 miles = $10.00). When you did your calculations, did you take this into consideration?
11. Here’s where it gets really intriguing. In order to warrant using the additive, you would need to get a 13% improvement in fuel economy (that’s the difference between $0.08 and $0.09, 12.5% to be exact). In other words, if you use the additive, and it works, you are paying the exact same amount as if you did not use the additive. To actually save money, you’d need to improve fuel efficiency more than 13%.
12. Ironically, Ultimate ME2 claims an improvement in efficiency of 13% - which means you’re paying the exact same amount as if you didn’t use it given its cost. I don’t know how much Ultimate ME2 costs per pint, but I just checked on a similar product at auto zone and it is actually $5.99 per pint. In that instance, it would need to improve your fuel economy by close to 20% just to pay for itself. You would need to do better than that to experience any savings.

So, what am I saying? There is no reason to believe any of the claims of EYI, the company that makes Ultimate ME2. They don’t explain how their product works and the little data they do provide (which is of questionable origin) doesn’t actually support their claims. Your better off buying the least expensive gas you can find and making sure you: (1) check your tire pressure, (2) have clean air filters, (3) change your oil regularly, (4) don’t drive fast, (5) and get as much weight out of your vehicle as possible. Fuel additives are a scam, pure and simple. Sorry, but they are.

Update 2008-07-12: Here’s a recent article from the St. Petersburg Times giving the same advice I have given here.

I got my dissertation defense date - May 4. It’s a little nerve-wracking, but it will be good to have it done. It’s kept me pretty busy lately.

I also need to recommend a new local restaurant to my fellow Cincinnatians - Mama’s Hot Pot (8372 Reading Road). It opened up about a month ago and is just a couple of blocks from our condo. We stopped by yesterday. The food is good and very well priced. I wouldn’t say it’s the highest quality restaurant I’ve been to, but it’s local and the owner/chef comes out to chat with you. I tried the vegetarian lasagna, which was okay. Debi got the falafel - and I was jealous; the falafel was superb and cheap. We also split a bowl of potato soup that was uniquely spiced (lots of dill) and great. The owner also treated me to a sample of his rice pudding, which was also very good. The menu is probably a bit hit or miss, but definitely worth giving it a chance.

Finally, I caught this short article in the January edition of Footnotes about a poll taken among Iraqi’s. The article is actually pretty objective and doesn’t really have a particular political bias. This one question really struck me:

When asked about “the three main reasons for the U.S. invasion of Iraq,” 76% of Iraqis cited “to control Iraqi oil” as their first choice; 41% said “to build military bases” as the second choice; and 32% mentioned “to help Israel” as the third choice. Less than 2% of Iraqis cited “to bring democracy to Iraq” as the most likely explanation for the U.S. invasion of their country.

I added a couple of new links in the sidebar. The first is to a list of the places we’ve visited using Google Maps. My paternal grandparents had a map with pins in it marking all of the places they visited over the years. I liked the idea and figured out take a 21st Century approach to do the same thing. I’m only up to 2002 in putting places on the map, but I should be adding the remaining places we’ve visited since then over the next few weeks.

The second link is to my public list of movie ratings on IMDB. I used to review every movie I watch, but that was too time consuming. Now I rate them just to keep track of the movies I’ve seen and what I thought of them.

We’ve been back from Tampa/Nashville for almost two weeks now, but I’ve been swamped with other things and am just now getting to writing up a trip report. Here’s the rundown:

March 14th drove to Tampa
It’s a 14 to 16 hour drive. We drove straight through, listening to a few books on mp3 (see the earlier reviews, with more on the way). We left Cinti around 5:00 am and got to Tampa around 7:30, with enough time left to go out to dinner and pick up an in-car GPS unit (which turned out to be a great investment - I highly recommend one if you are going house hunting).

March 15th, househunting and interview
We spent the morning looking at homes in Seminole Heights (an area pretty close to downtown Tampa) then went to St. Petersburg for an interview Debi had at All Children’s Hospital. She didn’t get the job, but made some good contacts. Also, just by chance, as we were looking at homes in Seminole Heights a random real estate agent let us through a house she had just shown. As we got to talking we found out that she was the wife of the doctor in charge of the position Debi was applying for later that afternoon. Bizarre coincidence.

March 16th, more househunting
We spent the morning looking at homes in South Tampa, which is pretty pricey but very nice. We had lunch with one of my future colleagues and his girlfriend near the University of Tampa (if you haven’t seen pictures of the campus yet, you should check some out - very pretty). We then spent the afternoon looking at homes in Temple Terrace. By the end of the day, we were beginning to realize that our original price range (which was quite high we thought) wasn’t going to buy us the home we wanted. We started considering going a bit higher…

March 17th, more househunting plus a lovely evening
We spent the day looking at even more homes in South Tampa (thank science for that GPS navigator). We then looked at some homes in West Tampa and finally found some homes in Seminole Heights that we really liked. We then visited with another future colleague of mine and her husband in a small town just outside of Tampa. It was a nice, relaxing evening and a welcome reprieve from our incessant house hunting.

March 18th, house visiting with the realtor
After narrowing the list of homes we saw (about 90 total) down to just a few we wanted to go through, we finally met up with our real estate agent and spent the day looking through houses. We found a number we really liked, but a couple were particularly nice and right around our price range.

March 19th, last day in Tampa
This was our last day in Tampa. We spent the morning chasing down some addresses related to Universal Promotions. I had the hardest time believing that company operates out of the back of a coffee shop. Turns out, that’s true, and now I have the photos to prove it. That was fun; I think I’m an amateur sleuth at heart. We spent the afternoon checking a few more houses and looking at comparable homes near the ones we liked to get a better sense of the neighborhoods. That evening we had dinner with one of my future colleagues, who invited a number of other UT faculty. It was really enjoyable and a good chance to meet other young couples.

March 20th, drove to Chattanooga
Not much to report here. We stopped in Valdosta, GA for lunch. Why is this a big deal? I had a phone interview with that school when I was on the job market and it was a contender until I landed the job at UT (at least, I liked it). Turns out it isn’t as rural as we thought, but it still isn’t a large city, like Tampa. We also went to Outback Steakhouse for dinner. I had seen photos of the bloomin’ onion for years and wanted to try it. It was good, but that was about the only thing on the menu that was vegetarian (and it probably isn’t even vegetarian, who knows).

March 21st, drove to Nashville
After a quick drive to Nashville, I settled into the hotel while Debi made herself busy at her conference. I had an entire textbook to read before the week ended as I was teaching a class on it the following week (I didn’t quite make it, but don’t tell my students…).

March 22nd, in Nashville
This was a particularly boring day as I spent the entire time reading while Debi was attending sessions at her conference. I did read outside for a while, which was nice (see my blog entry about reading in the park in Nashville), and exercised, but otherwise there wasn’t much else going on. We did find an excellent Mexican restaurant near our hotel that became our go-to place for vegetarian fare in Nashville. Nashville isn’t a very vegetarian friendly city from what we were able to find. We alternated between subway and that Mexican restaurant (which was very cheap and very good).

March 23rd, sightseeing in Nashville
Feeling too pent up sitting around in the Marriott (tearing pages out of the complimentary Book of Mormon), I decided to go sightseeing around Nashville with the daughter of one of the other attendees at the conference. We visited the Country Music Hall of Fame (pretty cool), The Tennessee State Capitol (also cool - there are chips in the marble from a gunfight), and The Hermitage Hotel, which is historic, but without a formal tour there isn’t much you can see just by walking inside. It was short excursion, but a good chance to get out and see the downtown area. You can see pictures of this excursion here.

March 24th, in Nashville
I spent most of this day reading while Debi was at the conference. I don’t think I ever even left the hotel.

March 25th, left Nashville for home
Debi’s conference ended late in the afternoon, then we drove home. I finished up a book on the way.

All in all, it was a productive but not very relaxing trip. We found a home (and now have a contract on it - but are still kind of in negotiations) and I got a lot of reading done. We saw some beaches (but didn’t even consider going to them; too busy) and are excited about Tampa. We also met my future colleagues, who were all very nice (which is great). We’re not sure on moving dates just yet, but hopefully we’ll work that out soon (probably June or July).